Wales and the future of conservatism - Part I

This post first appeared on Wales Home...

The debate about the future of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party (SCUP) is more than about a name, a leader or a logo. The experiences of those who fight the good fight for centre-right politics in Scotland and Wales shows us that an English-centric identity is a serious challenge to progress.



Murdo Fraser's call for a new party to advocate the centre-right cause in Scotland is a mature and politically astute challenge to the orthodoxy of carrying on regardless under the SCUP banner in the face of woeful polling and a downward spiral in electoral fortunes. Whilst some have painted Mr Fraser's plans as "just a name change" or dismissed his ideas as "ludicrous", others, notably former Scottish Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP, have welcomed his proposals a "refreshing new start" and indeed Michael Gove, the only Cabinet Member to have made any comment on the story thus far, has branded the debate as a "revival, political and intellectually" of the centre-right in Scotland.


Murdo Fraser's plans strike me as much more than just a name change for SCUP. He speaks of a new party, a new vehicle for the expression of centre-right sentiment and for the development of policy and ideas for a Scottish conservative movement over the coming decades. The fortunes of SCUP do not seem to be in any immediate hurry to travel along an upward curve and May's Scottish Parliamentary elections show another drop in support amongst voters. Fraser's alternative to banging their collective heads against the brick wall of public opinion is to forge a new alliance for the Scottish centre-right, to reach out to sections of the Scottish polity who, whilst holding conservative-leaning views on economics, social policy and public services, would find it very difficult to identify themselves as "Conservative and Unionist", "Tories" or even just plain old "Conservatives".


The Tartan Tories across Scotland, who must be voting for other parties at the moment, desperately need a new home to build up a new support base, create policies in Scotland and for Scotland. SCUP is seen by many as little more than the Tories with a slight Scottish accent. What the voters of Scotland really need is a party wholly rooted within Scotland, whose policies are created, developed and validated in Scotland and whose leaders are truly accountable to a membership in Scotland. I am sure that the likes of Murdo Fraser, his supporters at Holyrood and others who support his calls for a serious debate about the future of Scottish Conservatism have in their sights huge chunks of the SNP, LibDem and even Labour votes north of Hadrian's Wall and I hope that the Conservative Party Leadership in Westminster allow our friends and colleagues the space to decide this matter for themselves.


The debate also has very relevant parallels to Wales. For too long the Welsh polity has been dominated by the Labour Party, with votes for Labour seeming to trickle out of the very soil. Apart from in rural and north Wales, the record of success for the other parties in terms of winning Parliamentary, directly-elected Assembly seats or a smattering of Local Government Councillors has not been good. The Welsh Conservative highpoint of 13 seats in 1983 has yet to be beat and the waxing and waning of the nationalist left-leaning Plaid Cymru seems to elude even the most canny of psephologists. As for the Welsh LibDems (the only Party to have never increased its representation in the Assembly since the first elections in 1999), the best that can be said for them, as Jesus said of the poor, "they will always be with us".


The common cry amongst so many in Wales, including many within the Labour Party, is that we need "pluralism" in Wales. The excitement during the aftermath of the 2007 Assembly Elections, when the prospect of a non-Labour led Welsh Government was tantalisingly close, showed huge amounts of goodwill amongst much of the electorate, the media classes and wider civil society towards a proposed rainbow coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Conservatives and the LibDems. When will we ever get close to that prospect again? The 2011 Assembly Elections, whilst not giving Labour a blank cheque for Government (but then again, which form of PR election would do that?), did put them in the strongest position they've been in since the Assembly was formed. The cause of pluralism has gone backwards and their seems little to indicate that this is going to change any time soon.


In a commentary regarding the Scottish Question, the former Leader of the Welsh Conservative Group at the Assembly, Nick Bourne, says that whilst a proposal to change the name of the party in Wales was discussed, it was dismissed as being "about as sensible as the Royal Mail changing to Consignia". Nick goes on to state that the success of the Welsh Conservatives over his time as Leader of the Assembly Group (the only party in Wales to have grown in strength at each successive Assembly Election) validates his decision not to press ahead with a full debate about a name change. However, even Nick goes on to say that "more needs to be done on many fronts" to grow the Welsh Conservatives beyond its current levels of support. I agree with Nick that a name change in of itself would not have been enough to make any discernable impact on the Party's fortunes in Wales, but that is exactly the point that Murdo Fraser and his team are making in Scotland. It is not just a name change that will make the difference, but the creation of a new party and the propagation of a new political movement based on broader centre-right principles and ideals.


My colleague, friend and Chairman of my local Conservative Association in Swansea West, Harri Lloyd-Davies, made his call for a separate Welsh Conservative Party back in January and I fully supported him then and I do now. His analysis that "a lot of people out there would agree with a lot of what the Conservatives in Wales are saying, but because of the name" are put off from voting for us is correct. There is an image problem and there is also an issue of substance. For example, the Leader of the Welsh Conservative Party is, in fact, David Cameron. The next person in the civic line of importance for the Welsh Conservatives is the Secretary of State for Wales (or indeed the Shadow Secretary, should we not be in power in Westminster) who is currently the extremely able and very lovely but nevertheless very Buckinghamshire MP Cheryl Gillan. Then and only then do we see the Leader of the Welsh Conservative Group on the National Assembly for Wales.


The fact that our current Assembly Group Leader, as Nick Bourne before him, is the Official Leader of the Opposition in a Welsh Assembly context, our own Party structures give the impression that the position is reduced to being merely a Leader of a Council Group (and before any such office holder screams in indignation, I am in that bracket myself!). My own preference, as expressed during the recent contest to succeed Nick Bourne as Leader of the Assembly Group, I told BBC Radio Wales that I wanted the person holding the position to actually be our Party Leader in Wales and not just the Leader of the Group. It may seem a minor thing to some, but when one picks up the Welsh Conservative Manifesto or Welsh Conservative Party Conference Handbook and one has to flick past the Prime Minister's foreword, a page for the Secretary of State for Wales and even a supporting role from the Chairman of the Party in Wales before getting to the person who really ought to be the front man for the centre-right movement in Wales, it speaks volumes about our structure, outlook and direction.


It is time to acknowledge that whilst the United Kingdom is an institution worth fighting for, the Conservative and Unionist Party may not now be the best vehicle to lead the campaign to preserve it. We need a new, vibrant and relevant centre-right movement in Scotland and in Wales, not as a sign of weakness in the face of nationalist movements. Rather as a way of building new coalitions of support for conservative ideals based on a party that is accountable to and led by the membership in Scotland and Wales. This direction may prove to be the only way to guarantee the survival of both the Union and the existence of centre-right mainstream parties in our nations.